How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

82¢0 (0 bps)

82% 16 pts all-time

0 (0 bps)82%

1 (25 bps)14%

2 (50 bps)3%

3 (75 bps)1%

4 (100 bps)0%

6 (150 bps)0%

💡 What the odds say

Most likely: 0 (0 bps) at about a 82% chance — likely.

Prediction-market odds are usually well-calibrated — historically, outcomes priced near 70% happen about 70% of the time — but the crowd can still be wrong, and the price can lag the news.

Summary

The market heavily favors no rate cuts in 2026 at 82%, suggesting strong consensus that the Fed will hold rates steady. A single 25 bps cut is the next most likely scenario at 14%, while deeper cuts remain highly improbable. These odds imply market expectations for persistent economic conditions that do not warrant monetary easing in 2026.

How it resolves

Optimistic oracleSettled by UMA's optimistic oracle

Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.

⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.

Closes Dec 31, 2026 (6mo)

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.

View the official rules on Polymarket ↗

StatusOpen

ClosesDec 31, 2026 · 6mo

Total volume$38.8M

SourcePolymarket

View on Polymarket ↗

Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictionHub is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.