US inflation rate in June (month-over-month CPI)

💡 What the odds say

Most likely: Less than 0.2% at about a 40% chance — less likely than not.

Prediction-market odds are usually well-calibrated — historically, outcomes priced near 70% happen about 70% of the time — but the crowd can still be wrong, and the price can lag the news.

Summary

The market assigns a 40% probability to a month-over-month CPI increase below 0.2% in June, a 35% chance to a rise between 0.2% and 0.4%, and a 28% likelihood of an increase above 0.4%. These odds suggest traders see a slight edge for lower inflation, though the distribution across outcomes indicates significant uncertainty about the magnitude of change. Analysts are watching for signs of persistent price pressures versus potential moderation in core services and energy costs.