US inflation rate in June (year-over-year CPI)

💡 What the odds say

Most likely: Less than 4.1% at about a 62% chance — more likely than not.

Prediction-market odds are usually well-calibrated — historically, outcomes priced near 70% happen about 70% of the time — but the crowd can still be wrong, and the price can lag the news.

Summary

The market assigns a 62% probability to US year-over-year CPI inflation in June being less than 4.1%, indicating traders see this as the most likely outcome. Lower odds of 43% for the 4.1-4.4% range and 28% for above 4.4% suggest less confidence in higher inflation, though all outcomes retain significant uncertainty.