US core inflation rate in June (year-over-year CPI)

💡 What the odds say

Most likely: Between 2.9 and 3.3% at about a 44% chance — less likely than not.

Prediction-market odds are usually well-calibrated — historically, outcomes priced near 70% happen about 70% of the time — but the crowd can still be wrong, and the price can lag the news.

Summary

The market assigns the highest probability (44%) to US core inflation remaining between 2.9% and 3.3% year-over-year in June. Lower probabilities are given to inflation falling below 2.9% (24%) or rising above 3.3% (21%), indicating a slight skew toward the lower end but overall uncertainty. The odds suggest that traders see a moderate chance of inflation staying within the recent range, with less confidence in a significant deviation.