Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

40¢Gadi Eizenkot

40% 25 pts all-time

Gadi Eizenkot40%

Benjamin Netanyahu35%

Naftali Bennett13%

Avigdor Lieberman4%

Itamar Ben Gvir1%

Benny Gantz1%

💡 What the odds say

Most likely: Gadi Eizenkot at about a 40% chance — less likely than not.

Prediction-market odds are usually well-calibrated — historically, outcomes priced near 70% happen about 70% of the time — but the crowd can still be wrong, and the price can lag the news.

Summary

The market shows Gadi Eizenkot as the frontrunner at 40%, followed by Benjamin Netanyahu at 35%, suggesting a competitive race. Naftali Bennett trails at 13%, while other candidates like Avigdor Lieberman, Itamar Ben Gvir, and Benny Gantz have minimal odds. These probabilities reflect current expectations but are subject to change as the election approaches.

How it resolves

Optimistic oracleSettled by UMA's optimistic oracle

Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.

⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.

Closes Dec 31, 2026 (6mo)

Resolution criteria

Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.

View the official rules on Polymarket ↗

StatusOpen

ClosesDec 31, 2026 · 6mo

Total volume$21.3M

SourcePolymarket

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