Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: Gavin Newsom at about a 21% chance — unlikely.
Prediction-market odds are usually well-calibrated — historically, outcomes priced near 70% happen about 70% of the time — but the crowd can still be wrong, and the price can lag the news.
Summary
The leading outcomes for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination show Gavin Newsom at 21%, far ahead of other candidates like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 10% and Jon Ossoff at 9%, indicating a perceived early advantage but a still-uncertain field. Lower odds for figures such as Kamala Harris (7%), Josh Shapiro (5%), and Pete Buttigieg (4%) suggest less current confidence in their bids, though these probabilities can shift with future political events and developments.
How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Polymarket ↗Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictionHub is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.