Brazil Presidential Election

56¢Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

56% 12 pts all-time

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva56%

Flávio Bolsonaro23%

Renan Santos12%

Michelle Bolsonaro4%

Ronaldo Caiado2%

Fernando Haddad2%

💡 What the odds say

Most likely: Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at about a 56% chance — more likely than not.

Prediction-market odds are usually well-calibrated — historically, outcomes priced near 70% happen about 70% of the time — but the crowd can still be wrong, and the price can lag the news.

Summary

The market indicates Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva as the frontrunner with a 57% probability, while Flávio Bolsonaro trails at 23%. Other candidates, including Renan Santos and Michelle Bolsonaro, have significantly lower odds, suggesting a perceived two-horse race. These probabilities reflect current expectations but are subject to change as the election approaches.

How it resolves

Optimistic oracleSettled by UMA's optimistic oracle

Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.

⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.

Closes Oct 4, 2026 (3mo)

Resolution criteria

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.

View the official rules on Polymarket ↗

StatusOpen

ClosesOct 4, 2026 · 3mo

Total volume$105M

SourcePolymarket

View on Polymarket ↗

Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictionHub is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.