Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

12¢Yes

12% 2 pts all-time

Yes

12¢

88¢

💡 What the odds say

The market puts this at about a 12% chance — very unlikely.

Prediction-market odds are usually well-calibrated — historically, outcomes priced near 70% happen about 70% of the time — but the crowd can still be wrong, and the price can lag the news.

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No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 12% right now.

How it resolves

Optimistic oracleSettled by UMA's optimistic oracle

Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.

⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.

Closes Dec 31, 2026 (6mo)

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Vladimir Putin's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Vladimir Putin and the government of Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.

View the official rules on Polymarket ↗

StatusOpen

ClosesDec 31, 2026 · 6mo

Total volume$8.6M

SourcePolymarket

View on Polymarket ↗

Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictionHub is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.