Who will be the next person to win an election to US House District 11, other than Nancy Pelosi?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: Scott Wiener at about a 52% chance — a coin toss.
Prediction-market odds are usually well-calibrated — historically, outcomes priced near 70% happen about 70% of the time — but the crowd can still be wrong, and the price can lag the news.
How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
Resolves to whoever is next elected to the office, other than Nancy Pelosi, regardless if they are ever seated. Includes special elections. Expires before the next redisticting cycle; will be resolved N/A if no one wins the seat other than Pelosi by market close time.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Manifold ↗Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictionHub is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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