2028 Republican nominee?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: JD Vance at about a 41% chance — less likely than not.
Prediction-market odds are usually well-calibrated — historically, outcomes priced near 70% happen about 70% of the time — but the crowd can still be wrong, and the price can lag the news.
How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
Resolution Criteria: The question will resolve to "Yes" for the candidate officially nominated by the Republican Party for the 2028 U.S. Presidential Election, as confirmed by the party's official announcement or at the Republican National Convention. If no candidate is nominated, it will resolve to "No."
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Manifold ↗Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictionHub is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Related markets
Georgia Governor's Race: Which party will win in 2026?
3 outcomes
Which Party will in the 2026 Maine Gubernatorial election?
3 outcomes