Will someone be arrested for a felony offense committed in the name of AI safety in the US before 2030?

💡 What the odds say

The market puts this at about a 98% chance — almost certain.

Prediction-market odds are usually well-calibrated — historically, outcomes priced near 70% happen about 70% of the time — but the crowd can still be wrong, and the price can lag the news.

No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 98% right now.

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