Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 24% chance — unlikely.
Prediction-market odds are usually well-calibrated — historically, outcomes priced near 70% happen about 70% of the time — but the crowd can still be wrong, and the price can lag the news.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 24% right now.
Summary
This market asks which AI company, OpenAI or Anthropic, will hold an initial public offering first, with a deadline of January 1, 2040. Current odds show 24% for Yes (OpenAI first) and 76% for No (Anthropic first or neither). The resolution depends on official IPO confirmation from either company.
How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
If OpenAI confirms an IPO first, before Jan 1, 2040, then the market resolves to Yes.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Kalshi ↗Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictionHub is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Related markets
Which company will have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
6 outcomes
Which of these Language Models will beat me at chess?
51 outcomes