New Zealand Election 2nd Place (Polymarket)
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: National Party at about a 64% chance — more likely than not.
Prediction-market odds are usually well-calibrated — historically, outcomes priced near 70% happen about 70% of the time — but the crowd can still be wrong, and the price can lag the news.
How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
Resolves the same as: https://polymarket.com/event/new-zealand-election-2nd-place-393 Rules below are a guide only: A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/). More nz election markets: https://manifold.markets/topic/nz-election-26-challenge?r=SmFjazE Win prizes by trading on this market: https://manifold.markets/post/prize-pool-of-5500-mana-for-the-202?r=SmFjazE
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictionHub is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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