Will Clarence Thomas resign during Trump's term?

39¢Yes

41% 1 pts all-time

Yes

39¢

61¢

💡 What the odds say

The market puts this at about a 39% chance — less likely than not.

Prediction-market odds are usually well-calibrated — historically, outcomes priced near 70% happen about 70% of the time — but the crowd can still be wrong, and the price can lag the news.

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No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 39% right now.

How it resolves

Regulated exchangeSettled by Kalshi (CFTC-regulated)

Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.

Closes Jan 20, 2029 (2y)

Resolution criteria

If Clarence Thomas resigns, or announces intent to resign, from the Supreme Court before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.

View the official rules on Kalshi ↗

StatusOpen

ClosesJan 20, 2029 · 2y

Total volume$31.2K

SourceKalshi

View on Kalshi ↗

Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictionHub is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.