US core inflation rate in June (month-over-month CPI)

💡 What the odds say

Most likely: Between 0.2 and 0.4% at about a 47% chance — a coin toss.

Prediction-market odds are usually well-calibrated — historically, outcomes priced near 70% happen about 70% of the time — but the crowd can still be wrong, and the price can lag the news.

Summary

The market indicates a 47% probability that the US core inflation rate for June will be between 0.2% and 0.4% month-over-month, with a 35% chance of being below 0.2% and a 20% chance of exceeding 0.4%. These odds suggest traders see a moderate increase as the most likely scenario, but assign significant weight to a lower reading, while a higher spike is considered less probable. The distribution reflects uncertainty around whether inflation will remain contained or show signs of easing further.