Masoud Pezeshkian out as President of Iran by ...?

💡 What the odds say

Most likely: December 31 at about a 37% chance — less likely than not.

Prediction-market odds are usually well-calibrated — historically, outcomes priced near 70% happen about 70% of the time — but the crowd can still be wrong, and the price can lag the news.

Summary

The market indicates a 37% probability that Masoud Pezeshkian will leave office by December 31, with significantly lower odds of 6% by March 31 and 4% by June 30. These odds suggest traders see a moderate chance of an early departure within the year, but the sharp drop after December implies uncertainty about the timing or likelihood of a later exit. No single outcome is dominant, and the probabilities reflect a range of possible scenarios without clear consensus.