Tech prediction markets
AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.
Futuur
Open
Which company will have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Anthropic96¢
6 outcomes
$3.5K Vol4d
Manifold· Play
Open
Which of these Language Models will beat me at chess?
Any model announced before 203487¢
51 outcomes
Ɱ406K Vol75y
Futuur
Open
Which company will have the best AI model at the end of 2026?
Anthropic72¢
6 outcomes
$165 Vol15d
Manifold· Play
Open
In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
Yes33¢
No67¢
Ɱ12.3M Vol1y
Polymarket
Open
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?
Yes24¢
No77¢
$411K Vol 6pts1d
Manifold· Play
Open
In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?
Yes87¢
No13¢
Ɱ2.4M Vol1y
Polymarket
Open
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
Yes54¢
No46¢
$771K Vol 31pts6d
Manifold· Play
Open
Will Anthropic restore access to Fable 5 to all customers by the end of June?
Yes40¢
No60¢
Ɱ50.1K Vol6d
Polymarket🔭 2 venues
Open
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?
Yes90¢
No10¢
$60.6K Vol 17pts1mo