Ollie Watkins: 4+ shots on target
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 0% chance — almost no chance.
Prediction-market odds are usually well-calibrated — historically, outcomes priced near 70% happen about 70% of the time — but the crowd can still be wrong, and the price can lag the news.
How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game between Panama and England, scheduled for June 27 at 5:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ollie Watkins records more than 3.5 shots on target within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This market will resolve to "No" if Ollie Watkins records 3.5 shots on target or fewer within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Shots on target are counted only if credited to Ollie Watkins in the official match statistics. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. If Ollie Watkins is listed as inactive or otherwise does not play, the market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Polymarket ↗Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictionHub is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
Loading…
Related markets
South Africa - Canada
The prediction market for the South Africa vs. Canada match indicates a strong expectation of a Canada win at 55%, while a draw is seen as moderately likely at 26%, and a South Africa victory is the least favored outcome at 19%. These probabilities reflect current market sentiment but do not guarantee any specific result.
3 outcomes
USA - Bosnia & Herzegovina
The prediction market heavily favors the USA with a 62% probability of winning, while a draw and a Bosnia & Herzegovina victory are seen as less likely at 23% and 15% respectively. These odds suggest that traders view the USA as the clear favorite in this match, though the possibility of a draw or an upset remains on the table. No outcome is certain, and the pricing reflects the perceived competitive balance between the teams.
3 outcomes
2026 FIFA World Cup Mega-Market: Group Stage
This prediction market aggregates over a dozen binary outcomes for the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage, with each contract currently priced at 100% (implying near-certainty) for a specific match result. The leading outcomes all indicate strong favorites: Mexico to beat South Africa, South Korea to beat Czechia, USA to beat Paraguay, Australia to beat Türkiye, Germany to beat Curaçao, and Ivory Coast to beat Ecuador. While these prices suggest overwhelming market confidence, they may also reflect limited liquidity or wagers placed at maximum odds, and should not be interpreted as guaranteed outcomes.
72 outcomes
Germany - Paraguay
This market asks which team will win the match between Germany and Paraguay at full time. Current odds show Germany as the strong favorite at 70%, while a draw is priced at 19% and a Paraguay win at 11%. These probabilities reflect the market's view that Germany is much more likely to win, but both a draw and a Paraguay upset are still considered possible outcomes.
3 outcomes