Julián Álvarez: 4+ goals + assists
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 0% chance — almost no chance.
Prediction-market odds are usually well-calibrated — historically, outcomes priced near 70% happen about 70% of the time — but the crowd can still be wrong, and the price can lag the news.
How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game between Jordan and Argentina, scheduled for June 27 at 10:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Julián Álvarez records more than 3.5 combined goals + assists within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This market will resolve to "No" if Julián Álvarez records 3.5 combined goals + assists or fewer within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Goals and assists are added together: each goal or each assist credited to Julián Álvarez in the official match statistics adds one to the combined total. Combined goals + assists are counted only if credited to Julián Álvarez in the official match statistics. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. If Julián Álvarez is listed as inactive or otherwise does not play, the market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictionHub is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
Loading…
Related markets
World Cup Winner
The market indicates France as the frontrunner to win the World Cup with 19% odds, followed closely by Argentina and Spain at 14% each. England and Portugal trail at 11% and 8% respectively, while Germany holds a 5% chance. These probabilities suggest a competitive field with multiple contenders, though no single team holds a commanding lead.
60 outcomes
South Africa - Canada
The prediction market for the South Africa vs. Canada match indicates a strong expectation of a Canada win at 55%, while a draw is seen as moderately likely at 26%, and a South Africa victory is the least favored outcome at 19%. These probabilities reflect current market sentiment but do not guarantee any specific result.
3 outcomes
Which countries will make the FIFA World Cup Round of 16?
The prediction market assigns high probabilities to Argentina, France, England, Spain, Germany, and the USA advancing to the Round of 16. These odds suggest strong confidence in these teams, though other countries also have chances. The market reflects current expectations based on team performance and group stage results.
48 outcomes
USA - Bosnia & Herzegovina
The prediction market heavily favors the USA with a 62% probability of winning, while a draw and a Bosnia & Herzegovina victory are seen as less likely at 23% and 15% respectively. These odds suggest that traders view the USA as the clear favorite in this match, though the possibility of a draw or an upset remains on the table. No outcome is certain, and the pricing reflects the perceived competitive balance between the teams.
3 outcomes
Germany - Paraguay
This market asks which team will win the match between Germany and Paraguay at full time. Current odds show Germany as the strong favorite at 70%, while a draw is priced at 19% and a Paraguay win at 11%. These probabilities reflect the market's view that Germany is much more likely to win, but both a draw and a Paraguay upset are still considered possible outcomes.
3 outcomes
2026 Women's Wimbledon Winner
The market for the 2026 Women's Wimbledon Winner shows Aryna Sabalenka as the frontrunner at 21%, followed by Mirra Andreeva and Elena Rybakina at 11% each, and Iga Świątek at 9%. These odds imply a competitive field with no clear dominant favorite, as the top four contenders collectively account for only 52% of the probability. The remaining probability is distributed among other players, including Jessica Pegula and Amanda Anisimova, indicating significant uncertainty about the eventual champion.
74 outcomes