Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31?
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 96% chance — almost certain.
Prediction-market odds are usually well-calibrated — historically, outcomes priced near 70% happen about 70% of the time — but the crowd can still be wrong, and the price can lag the news.
Across venues
· updated 3m agoPredictionHub ConsensusThe same question trades on 2 venues. This blend is weighted by each venue’s market depth.
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No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 96% right now.
Summary
This market bets on whether Anthropic will restore public access to its Claude Fable 5 model for US customers by end of 2026, after a government suspension. Current odds strongly favor Yes (96%), suggesting traders believe restoration is likely given the model's prior release and potential resolution of regulatory issues. However, the 4% No side underscores uncertainty about government actions or internal decisions that could delay or prevent restoration.
How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
On June 9, 2026, Anthropic released the AI model “Claude Fable 5” to the general public. On June 12, 2026, Anthropic suspended access to the specified model in response to a directive from the US government. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic restores access to “Claude Fable 5,” also known as “Claude Mythos,” or a model confirmed to be the same model to US customers by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying model must be named "Claude Fable 5” or “Claude Mythos” (e.g., Claude Mythos 1, Claude Mythos 5, Claude Mythos X, would count), or be confirmed by Anthropic or by a consensus of credible reporting to be the same model as released by Anthropic on June 9, 2026. Products labeled as Claude Haiku, Sonnet, and Opus 4.7/5.0 or similar will not count for this market's resolution unless they are confirmed to be the same model released by Anthropic on June 9, 2026. For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be restored to public accessibility within the United States, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The restoration must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to US customers. If an otherwise qualifying restoration restricts access to certain customers based on nationality, whether geographically inside or outside of the US, that restoration will still qualify. If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictionHub is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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