Will South Korea reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 0% chance — almost no chance.
Prediction-market odds are usually well-calibrated — historically, outcomes priced near 70% happen about 70% of the time — but the crowd can still be wrong, and the price can lag the news.
How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve “Yes” if the listed team reaches the 2026 FIFA World Cup Quarterfinals. If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed club to advance to the 2026 FIFA World Cup Quarterfinals (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after July 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or the 2026 FIFA World Cup Quarterfinals matchup has not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Polymarket ↗Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictionHub is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
Loading…
Related markets
World Cup Winner
The market indicates France as the frontrunner to win the World Cup with 19% odds, followed closely by Argentina and Spain at 14% each. England and Portugal trail at 11% and 8% respectively, while Germany holds a 5% chance. These probabilities suggest a competitive field with multiple contenders, though no single team holds a commanding lead.
60 outcomes
South Africa - Canada
The prediction market for the South Africa vs. Canada match indicates a strong expectation of a Canada win at 55%, while a draw is seen as moderately likely at 26%, and a South Africa victory is the least favored outcome at 19%. These probabilities reflect current market sentiment but do not guarantee any specific result.
3 outcomes
Which countries will make the FIFA World Cup Round of 16?
The prediction market assigns high probabilities to Argentina, France, England, Spain, Germany, and the USA advancing to the Round of 16. These odds suggest strong confidence in these teams, though other countries also have chances. The market reflects current expectations based on team performance and group stage results.
48 outcomes
USA - Bosnia & Herzegovina
The prediction market heavily favors the USA with a 62% probability of winning, while a draw and a Bosnia & Herzegovina victory are seen as less likely at 23% and 15% respectively. These odds suggest that traders view the USA as the clear favorite in this match, though the possibility of a draw or an upset remains on the table. No outcome is certain, and the pricing reflects the perceived competitive balance between the teams.
3 outcomes
Germany - Paraguay
This market asks which team will win the match between Germany and Paraguay at full time. Current odds show Germany as the strong favorite at 70%, while a draw is priced at 19% and a Paraguay win at 11%. These probabilities reflect the market's view that Germany is much more likely to win, but both a draw and a Paraguay upset are still considered possible outcomes.
3 outcomes
2026 Women's Wimbledon Winner
The market for the 2026 Women's Wimbledon Winner shows Aryna Sabalenka as the frontrunner at 21%, followed by Mirra Andreeva and Elena Rybakina at 11% each, and Iga Świątek at 9%. These odds imply a competitive field with no clear dominant favorite, as the top four contenders collectively account for only 52% of the probability. The remaining probability is distributed among other players, including Jessica Pegula and Amanda Anisimova, indicating significant uncertainty about the eventual champion.
74 outcomes