How much Gold will it take to buy one Bitcoin next?
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 76% chance — likely.
Prediction-market odds are usually well-calibrated — historically, outcomes priced near 70% happen about 70% of the time — but the crowd can still be wrong, and the price can lag the news.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 76% right now.
How it resolves
Resolved on-chain per the rules written into each market (stablecoin-settled). On-chain settlement is transparent but, like any market, only as good as the rules it was written with.
Resolution criteria
### **Market Details:** - **Market Close:** This market will only be closed once a resolution is achieved. - **Resolution Deadline:** The resolution will be determined as soon as an outcome is reached. - **Market Targets:** - **10 oz Target:** 1 Bitcoin = 10.0000 ounces of Gold. - **30 oz Target**: 1 Bitcoin = 30.0000 ounces of Gold. ### **Resolution Criteria:** - The market resolves based on which condition is met first: - **“30 oz”** if the Bitcoin to Gold Ratio on Longterm Trends reaches or exceeds the 30 oz Target. - **“10 oz”** if the Bitcoin to Gold Ratio on Longterm Trends drops to equal or below the 10 oz Target. ### **Resolution Details:** The market resolves based on the BItcoin to Gold Ratio Chart (logarithmic scale) on Longterm Trends, specifically: - 1-Year view ("1y"). - Bitcoin / Gold ratio in ounces for each day Only the “Bitcoin / Gold Ratio” value as quoted by Longterm Trends will be considered. ### **Cancellation (Invalidity) Conditions:** - The BItcoin / Gold Ratio on Longterm Trends is suspended or becomes unreliable. - The Longterm Trends platform is unavailable or experiences significant disruptions. - Any circumstance prevents reliable price tracking. - Myriad Markets undergoes a change in its contract that demands a cancellation of all active markets, or a similar significant technical change. In the event of cancellation, participants may claim their stakes at the market value of their open positions at the time of cancellation. This could result in a profit or a loss, depending on the price of their outstanding shares.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Myriad ↗Data from Myriad’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictionHub is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.