Who IPOs first?
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 71% chance — likely.
Prediction-market odds are usually well-calibrated — historically, outcomes priced near 70% happen about 70% of the time — but the crowd can still be wrong, and the price can lag the news.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 71% right now.
How it resolves
Resolved on-chain per the rules written into each market (stablecoin-settled). On-chain settlement is transparent but, like any market, only as good as the rules it was written with.
Resolution criteria
### **Market Details:** - **Market Close:** This market will close after either of the companies has officially had its IPO. - **Resolution Deadline:** The resolution will be determined as soon as an outcome is reached. ### **Resolution Criteria:** - Resolves to **“Anthropic”** if Anthropic IPOs before OpenAI. - Resolves to **“OpenAI”** if OpenAI IPOs before Anthropic. ### **Resolution Details:** - This market will resolve based on the official communications by Anthropic and OpenAI. - To IPO, for the purposes of this market, is defined as an Initial Public Offering (IPO), also known as the process where a private company first sells shares to the public and thus transitioning into a publicly traded entity. - A confirmation of an IPO date alone will not trigger a resolution. Either IPO must occur and be publicly tradable on any exchange for it to count towards resolution. - Resolution may be delayed in case there are grounds to suspect that resolution sources may be corrupted or hacked. ### **Cancellation (Invalidity) Conditions:** - Any circumstance makes it impossible to determine the outcome. - Myriad Markets undergoes a change in its contract that demands a cancellation of all active markets, or a similar significant technical change. In the event of cancellation, participants may claim their stakes at the market value of their open positions at the time of cancellation. This could result in a profit or a loss, depending on the price of their outstanding shares.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Myriad ↗Data from Myriad’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictionHub is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.