Which teams will win their group at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: Mexico at about a 100% chance — almost certain.
Prediction-market odds are usually well-calibrated — historically, outcomes priced near 70% happen about 70% of the time — but the crowd can still be wrong, and the price can lag the news.
How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
There will be 12 groups each with 4 teams in it at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. The 12 Teams that win their group will resolve YES and all other teams will resolve NO. The ranking of teams in each group is determined by the points obtained in all group matches. If two or more teams are equal on points, the following criteria are used to determine the ranking: a. Most points obtained in the group matches played between the teams concerned; b. Superior goal difference in the group matches played between the teams concerned; c. Most goals scored in the group matches played between the teams concerned; If, after having applied criteria a to c, teams still had an equal ranking, criteria a to c are reapplied exclusively to the matches between the teams who are still level to determine their final rankings. If this procedure does not lead to a decision, criteria d to h apply. d. Superior goal difference in all group matches; e. Most goals scored in all group matches; f. "Fair Play" score: Yellow card: −1 point; Indirect red card (second yellow card): −3 points; Direct red card: −4 points; Yellow card and direct red card: −5 points; g. Better position in the most recent FIFA Men's World Ranking; h. Better position in progressively older FIFA Men's World Rankings until teams can be separated.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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