2026 FIFA World Cup prop bets
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: Lionel Messi to score at least one goal at about a 100% chance — almost certain.
Prediction-market odds are usually well-calibrated — historically, outcomes priced near 70% happen about 70% of the time — but the crowd can still be wrong, and the price can lag the news.
How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
20 var decisions overturned: only actual VAR interference count, automated offside checks are not included Most questions should be clear from official stats pages. I reserve the right to make calls on ambiguous cases Update 2026-06-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): 15+ minutes of stoppage time refers to a single match, not aggregate across the tournament. Update 2026-06-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Goals by default exclude penalty shoot-out goals unless otherwise specified.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Manifold ↗Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictionHub is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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