Will a Republican win in the following US Senate 2026 elections?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: West Virginia at about a 96% chance — almost certain.
Prediction-market odds are usually well-calibrated — historically, outcomes priced near 70% happen about 70% of the time — but the crowd can still be wrong, and the price can lag the news.
How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_elections Update 2025-07-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - An independent candidate who caucuses with the Republican party will not count as a Republican for the purposes of this market's resolution.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Manifold ↗Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictionHub is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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