Will Argentina, Uruguay, Chile or Paraguay be announced as hosts for the 2038 Men's FIFA World Cup?
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 19% chance — unlikely.
Prediction-market odds are usually well-calibrated — historically, outcomes priced near 70% happen about 70% of the time — but the crowd can still be wrong, and the price can lag the news.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 19% right now.
Summary
The market assigns low probability to a South American bid led by Argentina, Uruguay, Chile, or Paraguay hosting the 2038 FIFA World Cup. The bid faces uncertainty due to the 2030 centenary tournament already involving three of these nations and competition from other confederations. Resolution depends on an official announcement from FIFA or recognized sources.
How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
If Argentina, Uruguay, Chile or Paraguay are announced as hosts for the 2038 Men's FIFA World Cup and confirmed by any of the Source Agencies, then the market resolves to Yes.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Kalshi ↗Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictionHub is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Related markets
2026 FIFA World Cup Mega-Market: Group Stage
72 outcomes