Will Ghislaine Maxwell receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?

25¢Yes

37% 4 pts all-time

Yes

25¢

75¢

💡 What the odds say

The market puts this at about a 25% chance — unlikely.

Prediction-market odds are usually well-calibrated — historically, outcomes priced near 70% happen about 70% of the time — but the crowd can still be wrong, and the price can lag the news.

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No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 25% right now.

How it resolves

Regulated exchangeSettled by Kalshi (CFTC-regulated)

Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.

Closes Jan 21, 2029 (2y)

Resolution criteria

If Ghislaine Maxwell has been given a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during Trump's second term and before Jan 21, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.

View the official rules on Kalshi ↗

StatusOpen

ClosesJan 21, 2029 · 2y

Total volume$26.7K

SourceKalshi

View on Kalshi ↗

Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictionHub is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.