What will be the 51st state in Trump's term?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: Venezuela at about a 4% chance — almost no chance.
Prediction-market odds are usually well-calibrated — historically, outcomes priced near 70% happen about 70% of the time — but the crowd can still be wrong, and the price can lag the news.
Summary
This prediction market asks which territory could become the 51st U.S. state during a potential Trump term, with current odds showing Venezuela, Cuba, and Canada each at 3%, Greenland at 2%, and Puerto Rico and Guam at 1%. The low probabilities across all options suggest traders see annexation or statehood for any of these as highly unlikely, though the dispersion indicates no clear consensus on a single frontrunner.
How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
During Trump's term
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Kalshi ↗Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictionHub is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.