Will Margaret Qualley perform as a principal female character opposite James Bond referred to by major entertainment media as a “Bond girl” in the next James Bond film?
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 39% chance — less likely than not.
Prediction-market odds are usually well-calibrated — historically, outcomes priced near 70% happen about 70% of the time — but the crowd can still be wrong, and the price can lag the news.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 39% right now.
Summary
The market speculates whether Margaret Qualley will play a principal female role referred to as a 'Bond girl' in the next James Bond film, with current odds at 39% Yes and 61% No. Qualley is a rising actress with notable credits, but no official casting announcements have been made, and Bond girl casting often involves established or emerging stars without clear frontrunners.
How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
If Margaret Qualley performs/ is announced as a principal female character opposite James Bond referred to by major entertainment media as a “Bond girl” in the next James Bond film, then the market resolves to Yes.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Kalshi ↗Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictionHub is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.