Will Johnny Depp be casted in the next Pirates of the Caribbean?
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 60% chance — more likely than not.
Prediction-market odds are usually well-calibrated — historically, outcomes priced near 70% happen about 70% of the time — but the crowd can still be wrong, and the price can lag the news.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 60% right now.
Summary
The market predicts a 60% chance that Johnny Depp will be cast in the next Pirates of the Caribbean film before 2035. Depp's return remains uncertain due to prior legal controversies and studio dynamics, though fan interest and franchise revival talks persist. This forecast balances high public demand against ongoing Hollywood uncertainties.
How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
If Johnny Depp is cast in the next Pirates of the Caribbean before Jan 1, 2035, then the market resolves to Yes.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Kalshi ↗Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictionHub is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.