Will Henry Cavill be the next James Bond?
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 6% chance — very unlikely.
Prediction-market odds are usually well-calibrated — historically, outcomes priced near 70% happen about 70% of the time — but the crowd can still be wrong, and the price can lag the news.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 6% right now.
Summary
The market heavily favors NO at 94%, indicating strong skepticism that Henry Cavill will be cast as the next James Bond by 2030. Cavill is a popular fan choice, but official casting decisions remain uncertain and competitive.
How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
If Henry Cavill is cast as the next James Bond before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Kalshi ↗Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictionHub is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.