DOJ wins their anti-trust case against Apple?
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 21% chance — unlikely.
Prediction-market odds are usually well-calibrated — historically, outcomes priced near 70% happen about 70% of the time — but the crowd can still be wrong, and the price can lag the news.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 21% right now.
Summary
The market currently shows a 79% probability that the DOJ will not win its antitrust case against Apple, with only 21% odds for a win. The resolution hinges on the District Court for the District of New Jersey finding Apple liable for any of the DOJ's antitrust claims. This reflects trader skepticism about the government's ability to prove its case in court.
How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
If District Court for the District of New Jersey finds Apple responsible for any of the anti-trust claims made by the Department of Justice, the market resolves to Yes.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Kalshi ↗Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictionHub is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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