Iran to agree to end uranium enrichment by ...?

💡 What the odds say

Most likely: December 31 at about a 50% chance — a coin toss.

Prediction-market odds are usually well-calibrated — historically, outcomes priced near 70% happen about 70% of the time — but the crowd can still be wrong, and the price can lag the news.

Summary

This market predicts the date by which Iran will agree to end its uranium enrichment program. The leading outcome of a December 31 agreement is priced at 50%, implying the market sees it as the most likely date. Lower probabilities for earlier dates reflect greater skepticism about a swift resolution, while the absence of a high-probability near-term outcome suggests the market anticipates prolonged negotiations.