Iran to agree to end uranium enrichment by ...?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: December 31 at about a 50% chance — a coin toss.
Prediction-market odds are usually well-calibrated — historically, outcomes priced near 70% happen about 70% of the time — but the crowd can still be wrong, and the price can lag the news.
Summary
This market predicts the date by which Iran will agree to end its uranium enrichment program. The leading outcome of a December 31 agreement is priced at 50%, implying the market sees it as the most likely date. Lower probabilities for earlier dates reflect greater skepticism about a swift resolution, while the absence of a high-probability near-term outcome suggests the market anticipates prolonged negotiations.
How it resolves
Resolved by Futuur per each question's rules. Futuur runs both play- and real-money sides — we show the real-money (crypto) price.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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