San Francisco Daily Temperature High — contract UHSFO_062626_67
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 98% chance — almost certain.
Prediction-market odds are usually well-calibrated — historically, outcomes priced near 70% happen about 70% of the time — but the crowd can still be wrong, and the price can lag the news.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 98% right now.
This contract predicts whether San Francisco's daily high temperature on June 26, 2026, will reach 67°F or higher. Current odds heavily favor Yes at 98%, indicating strong market confidence in that outcome. The forecast is based on historical climate data and current weather models.
The case for YES
- • Historical data shows San Francisco often reaches 67°F or higher in late June.
- • Climate trends suggest warming, increasing likelihood of reaching that threshold.
- • Market consensus heavily leans Yes, reflecting aggregated expert and public belief.
The case for NO
- • San Francisco's coastal microclimate can produce cooler, foggy days even in summer.
- • A single day's high is subject to short-term weather variability not captured by averages.
- • Extreme odds can sometimes be overconfident; rare cool days do occur.
AI-generated from current market odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
How it resolves
Settled by ForecastEx, a CFTC-regulated US exchange (via Interactive Brokers), against the official source named in each contract.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on ForecastEx ↗Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictionHub is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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